Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 23.535665 25.703152 28.067221 30.852750 34.065359 37.679063 42.086763
2025-08-03 19.739408 22.566858 25.873071 30.081692 35.381819 41.956855 50.934028
2025-08-10 17.280861 20.446459 24.350915 29.638190 36.807318 46.508818 61.253048
2025-08-17 15.635084 19.017185 23.374719 29.592981 38.592659 51.794231 74.101542
2025-08-24 14.283318 17.757001 22.392095 29.299246 39.870228 56.538320 87.695926
2025-08-31 13.223151 16.743294 21.582160 29.069887 41.118309 61.442398 103.434437
2025-09-07 12.342971 15.874045 20.853318 28.816920 42.222572 66.309175 121.266901
2025-09-14 11.640816 15.181794 20.291758 28.717375 43.520134 71.816914 143.410245
2025-09-21 10.985407 14.496300 19.662978 28.408801 44.364104 76.636812 166.874292
2025-09-28 10.735631 14.379719 19.878592 29.511181 47.992845 88.430541 219.713895
2025-10-05 10.222962 13.826112 19.353005 29.257582 48.924461 94.413194 259.925720
2025-10-12 9.792946 13.367343 18.937045 29.141874 50.106640 101.436338 313.088977
2025-10-19 9.465965 13.056112 18.751054 29.454611 52.341272 112.396245 404.625915
2025-10-26 9.073414 12.617445 18.319143 29.256605 53.421876 120.673396 502.466139
2025-11-02 8.716986 12.214791 17.917235 29.070662 54.506806 129.587796 634.477374
2025-11-09 8.431659 11.909497 17.658753 29.137795 56.228971 141.643631 851.246714
2025-11-16 8.122483 11.547176 17.273082 28.901244 57.144590 151.439665 1114.987843
2025-11-23 7.842560 11.217949 16.922815 28.699493 58.120834 162.212911 1511.479458
2025-11-30 7.578288 10.901105 16.573271 28.461724 58.961540 173.136577 2106.071287
2025-12-07 7.352593 10.637842 16.303796 28.368776 60.203725 186.972646 3222.646783
2025-12-14 7.114626 10.342348 15.956203 28.067862 60.788907 198.259890 4945.875487
2025-12-21 7.066934 10.369750 16.211445 29.151695 65.848956 238.918392 19686.135059
2025-12-28 6.859391 10.109674 15.904248 28.903103 66.649641 255.541090 63884.121045